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US consumers will spend 6.7% more online this shopping season than last year, as the mix of goods shifts and the share of internet purchases increases – partly thanks to AI.
However, one industry expert does not expect a significant increase in parcel volume, nor serious delivery bottlenecks.
Despite inflation, US consumers are expected to spend more shopping in the months ahead – according to Adobe, online consumer spending from 1 November to 31 December will reach $275.1bn, 6.7% more than in the same period in 2025.
Deloitte is even more bullish, forecasting growth in online shopping from November through January up between 7.5% and 8.4%, year on year, to between $316bn and 319bn.
And the growth in online shopping is expected to outpace that of in-store activity, again – and this year, AI will be an additional factor as shoppers look for bargains.
Adobe pointed to a recent survey where 77% of the respondents who leveraged AI in their shopping expressed more confidence in their purchases.
Cyber Week will generate $47.5bn in online purchases, 7.4% higher than last year, Adobe predicts. And, while Cyber Monday is expected to see the highest revenue (up 6.2% from last year to more than $15bn), Black Friday should register the strongest growth, +9.2%, to $12.9bn.
Although spending is expected to increase, most consumers appear bent on curtailing expenditure as much as possible. In a survey from August, more than 70% said saving money would be a priority, a clear indication that inflation is affecting purchasing decisions.
A survey by the Financial Health Network and University of Southern California found more than 30% of households were “burdened with unmanageable levels of debt”.
Whereas the holiday shopping season has been associated with gifts, this year there is a strong focus on buying essentials, Adobe found. For Cyber Week it predicts purchases of personal hygiene items will rise 150% on average sales levels in September, and clothing basics to surge 210%, while online purchases of baby and pet products are forecast to be up 113% and 93%, respectively.
However, the main categories will remain electronics (rising 5.9% year on year, to $63.3bn), and apparel (up 4.7%, to $%1.3bn), with toys and cosmetics sales each expected to increase 10%.
The strong numbers are in spite of an early start to the holiday shopping season this year. An estimated 30% of shoppers have already purchased items for the holidays during sales events over the summer.
And October ushers-in more days of discounted shopping frenzy, courtesy of Amazon and Target, forecast to generate almost $10bn in online sales.
Cathy Morrow Roberson, founder and head analysts of Logistics Trends & Insights, reckons these will be the only days that will produce genuine growth in shopping in the months ahead. For the most part, the higher amounts reflect increases in price, rather than an elevated appetite for shopping, she thinks.
“This season is pretty much going to be like last year – nothing super spectacular, not really bad,” she predicted.
By extension, she does not anticipate dramatic strain on deliveries, adding: “I think there is enough capacity in the market.”
Past years have seen tens of thousands of extra workers hired to swell the delivery capacity of Amazon and the integrated express carriers, but this is no longer required, thanks to automation and the rise of crowd-sourced final-mile channels. Ms Roberson thinks the integrators may beef up their use of crowd-sourced drivers, however.
The integrators have signalled less interest in B2C parcel traffic, their focus more on premium B2C segments like pharmaceuticals, but they have not turned their backs on e-commerce; they have become more selective in this arena, she commented.
Still, she expects to see the largest growth in parcel volume in the upcoming shopping season at Amazon and crowd-sourced final-mile services, with regional parcel carriers, US Postal Service and DHL in the mix, ensuring enough capacity will be available.