U.S. Exit Leaves Iraq With a Militia Problem

政治、地缘政治与冲突

U.S. troops have withdrawn from Iraq, but this isn’t Biden’s Iraq. The withdrawal was agreed in 2024 when Biden determined that Iraqi forces could handle the remaining ISIS threat and that Washington could replace the coalition mission with bilateral training, intelligence sharing, and military assistance. Trump inherited that agreement and has now carried it out in a very different security environment, with the U.S. at war with Iran and Iran-aligned militias still operating across Iraq. The U.S. is giving up some important capabilities on the ground. American forces provided intelligence on militant movements, aerial surveillance and reconnaissance, while Kurdish commanders say they are also losing U.S. logistical support and drones. U.S. air defenses protecting Erbil are being withdrawn as well, leaving the Kurdish region more exposed after months of Iranian missile and drone attacks. Washington will continue training, intelligence cooperation and other support from outside the coalition framework, but it will no longer have the same military presence inside Iraq. The deal was that a U.S. troop withdrawal would lead to a pro-Iranian militia demobilization, but that’s already been pushed back. Baghdad originally tied the September 30 U.S. withdrawal to a deadline for bringing armed factions’ weapons under state control. The Americans left on schedule, but Baghdad has now pushed the deadline to June 30, 2027. Some factions want even longer, while the negotiations include proposals to incorporate militia members into state security institutions. That leaves open the possibility that fighters move into formal state structures without Baghdad actually dismantling the armed networks behind them.

Saudi Arabia says the Houthis have now struck Medina, two weeks after Riyadh accused the group of trying to hit Mecca. The Saudi coalition says a drone struck the Taibah electricity distribution station on September 29, knocking out one transformer but leaving the wider grid operating. The station supplies the Prophet’s Mosque, Islam’s second holiest site. Riyadh says investigators examined the drone wreckage before attributing the attack to the Houthis; the Houthis deny it and also deny Saudi Arabia’s earlier claim that they sent a drone toward Mecca. Saudi forces said Thursday they also intercepted two ballistic missiles and four drones over the south, following September attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and the East West pipeline.

The Iran war is turning ADNOC’s AI investment into something much closer to operating infrastructure. Abu Dhabi’s AIQ says its systems are now providing real-time information on drilling, production and facilities management across ADNOC’s operations, after six months of disrupted shipping and regional attacks made faster decisions considerably more valuable. AIQ, in which ADNOC is the largest customer and a shareholder, is now accelerating the rollout of Genesis, an operating system designed to run AI agents across upstream and downstream operations without tying them to a single model provider. CEO Dennis Jol told Semafor the technology had gone from a “nice to have” before the war to crucial during it. AIQ is also testing its systems in Kuwait, India, Malaysia and Vietnam, while a pilot in Egypt predicted a pump failure 45 days before it occurred, according to the company. The company has made its first UK hire, is considering Houston and has identified roughly 100 potential acquisition targets as it looks to take technology developed around ADNOC into other oil and gas markets.

Another hit to Syria’s already crippled energy system: an explosion on the gas pipeline between Al-Shoula and Deir ez-Zor halted supplies from the Al-Jabsah processing plant to power stations Monday night, the second attack on the Al-Jabsah system since August 18. Syrian authorities blamed sabotage, although a local oil official told The National the explosion may have been an attempted gas theft gone wrong. Either way, Syria has almost no room for another supply loss. Energy Minister Mohammad al-Bashir says domestic gas production has fallen to 8.5 million cubic meters per day from around 30 million before the war, against current demand of 22 million to 25 million cubic meters. That leaves Syria producing barely a third of the gas it needs even before another pipeline goes offline. The attack also complicates Damascus’ effort to rebuild the sector after signing a deal with ConocoPhillips in June to develop domestic gas resources and attract foreign capital back into Syrian energy.

Washington has finished releasing its share of the IEA’s 400 million barrel emergency stock draw, and now it wants Europe to do the same. Much of Europe’s promised oil and fuel is still in storage: Germany has released only 23% of its 15 million barrel commitment, Spain about a third of 11.6 million barrels, while France says its strategic stocks remain full. Washington has reportedly told Germany and France to release diesel stocks or risk restrictions on U.S. diesel exports, just as high diesel prices are becoming a problem ahead of the U.S. midterms. The IEA says roughly a third of the original 400 million barrels has yet to reach the market, and European governments will meet Friday to decide how much more they are prepared to release.

交易、合并与收购

Trump says South Korea is putting $54 billion into Alaska LNG; however, Seoul says that decision hasn’t been made. The alleged money would fund the project’s 807-mile pipeline from the North Slope to Alaska’s southern coast, part of the broader $200 billion Korean investment package with Washington. South Korea’s Industry Ministry said Thursday that neither participation nor an investment amount has been approved and that Alaska LNG must first pass a commercial and legal review.

发现与开发

Canada is fast-tracking a C$44 billion pipeline that would move another 1 million bpd of Alberta crude to the Pacific coast, giving producers a second major route into Asian markets. The Canadian PM designated the pipeline a project of national interest this week, targeting regulatory approval by September 2027. The pipeline would largely follow the existing Trans Mountain corridor to a new supertanker terminal at Roberts Bank near Vancouver. The project is part of Carney’s push to reduce Canada’s dependence on the U.S., which still takes roughly 90% of Canadian crude exports. Canadian producers have yet to commit barrels, and filling another 1 million bpd export line would require a substantial increase in western Canadian production.

Sigma Lithium has shut its only producing mine in Brazil, two days after saying reports that its environmental licenses had been suspended were “categorically incorrect.” The company halted mining and processing at Grota do Cirilo on Wednesday after receiving a notice from Minas Gerais regulators enforcing a federal court order issued September 4. The dispute centers on whether regulators should have consulted the nearby Baú Quilombola community before licensing the mine, and operations now depend on a federal appeals court ruling. Grota do Cirilo has an annual capacity of 330,000 tonnes of lithium concentrate, and Sigma is still keeping its 2027 production target at that level, although it pushed back its rolling 12-month guidance by three months.