Jamaica may be following in the footsteps of its Caribbean neighbours, such as Guyana, as it plans to drill for oil, despite being highly vulnerable to climate change. In recent years, Caribbean oil exploration has boomed, following successful drilling in Guyana and Suriname. But, at a time when the International Energy Agency (IEA) is calling for an end to exploration, will Jamaica pursue a future in fossil fuels?
At present, Jamaica imports all its fuel, spending between $1.5 and $2 billion a year on energy imports. However, successful findings from tests on seabed samples from Jamaica’s south coast earlier this year suggest that the region may be suitable for oil development. The U.K. based energy firm United Oil & Gas, which holds an exclusive exploration licence for the 22,400 sq km block in the Walton-Morant basin, identified hydrocarbons in the samples.
Jamaica’s energy minister, Daryl Vaz, called the findings “very positive” in a press statement. “They haven’t seen or touched the real deal, but [the results] are still important… I am cautiously optimistic and praying very hard … because of what the impact of any discovery would be,” Vaz stated. However, environmentalists are less enthusiastic, particularly as the island is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, having been ravaged by one of the most intense Atlantic hurricanes on record last year.
As a Small Island Developing State, Jamaica is highly exposed to climate change impacts, such as more frequent and more intense storms and hurricanes, longer droughts, and sea-level rise, according to the United Nations Development Programme. For example, in 2024, Hurricane Beryl affected 45,000 farmers, damaged around 8,700 houses, and had an adverse impact on livestock and fisheries, resulting in an estimated economic loss of US$6.5 billion.
Theresa Rodriguez-Moodie, the head of the Jamaica Environment Trust, emphasised, “We are on the heels of Hurricane Melissa…. You drive through sections of western Jamaica, and there is still devastation … We have a $12bn bill for damage, and we’re happy to talk about fossil fuel exploration. This is a big contradiction.” Rodriguez-Moodie added, “If we want to have any kind of moral high ground to stand up and even ask for assistance for [climate] loss and damage, and for adaptation and mitigation, we cannot be considering exploring and expanding the fossil fuel industry.”
However, Jamaica has seen neighbouring Guyana and Suriname benefit from new oil production revenues in recent years, making exploration highly attractive. Energy security is a major concern for Jamaica, particularly with ongoing geopolitical challenges driving up global oil and gas prices.
Jamaica ratified the Paris Agreement in 2017. Then, in 2024, the government called on other states to negotiate a treaty that focuses on phasing out oil, gas, and coal. The island nation is also a signatory to the Escazú Agreement for Latin America and the Caribbean, and the government has committed to restoring mangroves and seagrass in its coastal wetlands.
With the Walton-Morant basin located near some of Jamaica’s main fishing areas and close to mangroves, limestone forests, and coral reefs, there are major concerns about the potential environmental impact of drilling operations in the region, or, worse, a potential oil spill.
However, as seen in Guyana, many people believe that developing the country’s oil industry could help support broader economic and social development. Courtney Lindsay, an expert on the Caribbean at independent thinktank ODI Global, believes that the climate crisis “is a first-world problem”. Lindsay added, “We don’t have the luxury of saying, ‘We don’t want to contribute to this issue of climate change’ because we are talking about a bread-and-butter issue.”
Many governments have highlighted the hypocrisy of high-income countries in disregarding the needs of lower-income states and for expecting them to take the moral high ground when those countries did not do so in the past. Nevertheless, in 2025, the IEA reiterated its 2021 finding that no new oil and gas investment would be needed in a 1.5 °C world.
Greater investment in Jamaica’s renewable energy sector could help prevent the need to develop fossil fuels in the country. The island has significant potential for green energy development, including solar, hydropower, and wind, which currently contribute around 13 per cent of Jamaica’s electricity generation. The government aims for renewables to contribute 50 per cent of electricity production by 2030, but this will require substantial investment in the sector. Meanwhile, Jamaica’s high level of debt means this growth is unlikely to be achieved without foreign financing.
While the government tries to overcome Jamaica’s economic and social challenges, the development of the country’s oil industry looks highly attractive. However, pumping oil in such a vulnerable region could have major consequences. To help keep the oil in the ground and support a global green transition, the international community must invest more heavily in helping Jamaica and other island nations to develop their renewable energy capacity and ensure their long-term energy security.
作者：Felicity Bradstock，来源：Oilprice.com
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