India may be on track to miss its target for budget deficit for the first time since 2021 as the oil supply shock pressures government coffers.
The government of the world’s third-largest crude oil importer is preparing to exceed its own deficit target from early this year as the Middle East crisis is testing the resilience of public finances amid soaring energy import bills, an Indian official with knowledge of the plans told 彭博社 on Friday.
India may allow the budget deficit to widen to 4.8% of GDP for the current fiscal year ending March 2027, up from a 4.3% limit set in February, days before the Iran war broke out and broke the oil and gas markets.
Still, India’s Finance Ministry has reassured the major credit rating agencies that the deterioration of the country’s fiscal position would be exclusively due to external pressures and the geopolitical situation, not because of changes to the fiscal policy, the official told Bloomberg.
分析人士表示，只要霍尔木兹海峡的石油供应受阻，高油价就会继续对印度货币、经济增长和公共财政造成压力，印度正竭力控制历史上最严重的石油供应中断带来的经济和金融影响。.
印度每年进口超过8510万吨石油，战前约有一半的石油进口来自中东。如今，国有和私营炼油厂…… 寻求进口多元化, 包括进口创纪录数量的俄罗斯石油，以及从委内瑞拉和巴西进口更多原油以弥补中东供应的损失。.
The major crude importer has seen its growth prospects diminished as its high import dependence and the high price refiners pay weigh on inflation and GDP growth.
印度经济对外部冲击仍具有韧性，但油价飙升短期内可能带来不利影响。 经济增长面临的风险 印度储备银行（RBI）在5月底表示，通胀面临上行风险。.
作者：Oilprice.com 的 Tsvetana Paraskova
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