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The strong, elongated container shipping peak season this year has led Hapag-Lloyd to add more than $1bn to its 2026 profit outlook.
According to an investor note yesterday, its full-year EBITDA guidance has been upgraded, from $2.7bn-$3.7bn, to between $3.9bn and $4.4bn.
Guidance for group EBIT has also been revised, to the $1.25bn-$1.75bn range, up from between $100m and $1.1bn.
It explained that this was due to “continued strong market demand and the ongoing positive development of spot freight rates”, but also warned that “against the backdrop of volatile freight rates and persistent geopolitical challenges, the forecast is subject to a high degree of uncertainty”.
Nonetheless, the carrier’s growing war-chest will give it further financial ammunition to push through its acquisition of Zim’s international operations.
Details of the German carrier’s revised offer for Zim have begun to emerge from Israel – despite its shareholders overwhelmingly voting in favour of a sale, the Israel government has so far refrained from greenlighting the deal via its “Golden Share”, on the basis that the proposed network of the new Zim Israel line would be insufficient for the country’s supply chains, and that its proposed financing structure would limit its ability to operate in the shipping market.
In a series of meetings in Israel at the weekend, Hapag-Lloyd and FIMI Opportunity Funds, the Israeli private equity fund that would own and operate Zim Israel, produced a revised offer that attempted to satisfy the government’s concerns.
As far as container shipping operations are concerned, Hagag-Lloyd and FIMI vowed to establish a Far East-Israel service alongside an Israel-North America east coast service and two intra-Europe strings, to double the reefer capacity of Zim Israel, and develop an independent IT system for the new firm.
However, as a Loadstar Premium 分析 of the deal last week suggested, the current concept of Zim Israel operating 16 vessels – 12 owned and four chartered – would not provide sufficient tonnage to operate a Far East-Israel service, if it was to be on a weekly frequency, as well as the other three strings.
It remains unclear where the extra tonnage would come from, or how it would be financed.
Meanwhile, under the revised proposal, the Israeli state’s Golden Share in Zim Israel would be enlarged, with foreign ownership reduced to 10% from 24%.
And to satisfy the worries of Zim’s highly unionised workforce, there is a commitment to expand the pool of Israeli seafarers, and create a new collective bargaining agreement with workers that “will ensure employment continuity for the vast majority of Zim’s current employees, with a safety net for ten years”, according to Israeli business publication Calcalist.
Previous reports have suggested the deal could result in the loss of some 200 jobs at Zim, although FIMI has reportedly offered “generous conditions for voluntary retirement and a commitment to avoid layoffs by the end of 2027”.
Hapag-Lloyd and FIMI are due to present the revisions in detail within the next 45 days.