Following the Democrats’ midterm US election victories, freight forwarders and importers could face greater stability in trade policy, but little immediate relief from existing duties.
Nunzio De Filipis, co-CEO of CargoTrans, told Loadstar播客 the election result could slow the pace of tariff changes, although he expects the duties to remain.
“I don’t think we’re going to see the lever being pushed as fast as it has been,” he said, adding: “But I don’t see them going away.”
He pointed to the survival of Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods through successive administrations, noting that President Joe Biden had retained and expanded measures introduced during Donald Trump’s first term.
路透社 reported this month that Democratic control of Congress would provide greater opportunities to scrutinise President Trump’s trade agenda, but noted that lawmakers faced significant obstacles to repealing tariffs, including presidential veto powers and existing executive trade authority.
Similarly, the legislative and regulatory advisory arm of professional services firm EY explained in its recent trade policy alert that Democratic control would shift congressional committee leadership and increase oversight of trade policy.
However, the advisory noted that the election result would not itself change the tariffs or presidential trade powers, while substantial legislative changes would still require sufficient Congressional support ,and either President Trump’s signature or a veto-proof majority.
For Mr De Filipis, however, the bigger development could be a shift towards stricter customs enforcement. He suggested that tougher enforcement could attract bipartisan political support, particularly where it protects customs revenue and businesses complying with import regulations.
“I think we will start to see 2027 really be the year of enforcement,” he said, and warned that importers were already experiencing increased audits and requests for information, with customs authorities increasingly leveraging technology to examine trade data more efficiently.
Meanwhile, industry consultant Samantha Jones raised concerns about the wider economic implications of Democratic control, particularly for business investment, consumer spending, and freight demand.
She suggested that potential increases in corporate taxation or regulatory costs could encourage businesses to reduce investment, hiring, and wage growth, although the policies ultimately pursued remained uncertain.
“One potential risk I see is that higher corporate taxes or additional regulatory costs could encourage businesses to become more conservative with their budgets,” she said.
She also highlighted the importance of AI infrastructure investment to manufacturing, construction, and freight volumes, warning that additional regulatory obstacles could slow development.
According to Ms Jones, economic growth has increasingly benefited from technology-intensive industries, meaning strong headline economic figures do not necessarily translate into broader freight demand.
Her concerns extend to household purchasing power, with persistent inflation and slower wage growth potentially weighing on consumer spending and, consequently, demand for goods transportation.