ID 428573968
© Mohd Azrin
| Dreamstime.com
Japanese airfreight exports are forecast to rise 11.9% this year, driven in part by a surge in semiconductor-related cargo, as investment in AI and data centres accelerates.
In its latest analysis, NX Logistics Research Institute expects airfreight exports from Japan to reach 1.13m tonnes in FY26, marking the third consecutive year of growth and the first double-digit increase in five years.
Total airfreight, including imports, is forecast to rise 6.8%, to 2.41m tonnes.
Asia is expected to be the strongest export market, with volumes forecast to increase 16.5%, while transpacific shipments are predicted to rise 6.4%. The report says semiconductor-related shipments, including electronic components and manufacturing equipment, are increasing as AI-related demand expands.
The findings echo observations from Aevean head of consulting Maarten Wormer at Aviation Connect, where data centre investment was also identified as an increasingly important driver of air cargo demand.
Mr Wormer told 载星 the recovery in transpacific airfreight was not simply a consequence of shippers adapting to changes to the US de minimis regime. While ecommerce volumes were recovering, he said, hi-tech was the main driver.
Avevean data show data centre-related global airfreight is estimated at about 107,000 tonnes a month, with particularly strong growth from Taiwan and Thailand. Hi-tech shipments from China to the US are down 9%, but volumes from other origins have increased substantially as supply chains diversify.
The trend could also create new flows into Europe, potentially benefiting road feeder and truck operators, while airlines with less exposure to ecommerce could look to hi-tech cargo to replace lost volumes.
The NX Logistics report explains that the improvement in semiconductor-related cargo reflected the growing mainstream adoption of AI, while concerns over a deterioration in the semiconductor market, and tighter export controls on China, had receded.
But the data centre boom could create its own supply chain challenges, noted Mr Wormer, who highlighted concerns over the availability of components and rare materials, as well as the huge energy and cooling requirements of data centres. Australia is emerging as a major data centre market, he added, potentially creating new and imbalanced airfreight flows.
Hi-tech cargo does not generally require extensive specialist handling, although security is a key concern because of its value. Shock and humidity monitoring may also be required.
Meanwhile, Mr Wormer noted, ten new freighter aircraft are expected to enter service for Emirates this year, with seven already delivered, while emerging data centre flows are moving eastbound from Asia. This could potentially give Middle East carriers an opportunity to capture a share of the trade, he said.
“So then you have a lot more freighter capacity in the Middle East, whilst data centre airfreight is going from Asia. So potentially, they could capture some of that via the Middle East, but that obviously depends on the situation there as well,” he added.