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Xuejingwen | Dreamstime.com
The beginning of China’s Golden Week national holiday yesterday appears to have coincided with a plateauing of the strong pricing peak that persisted on the transpacific trades throughout September.
“Spot rates from Far East to the US ticked up again on 1 October, but we can say with a level of confidence that the market has reached its post-Hormuz crisis peak in 2026,” said Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand.
The data signals were slightly mixed, but most indices pointed to transpacific spot rates either leveling off or beginning to marginally decline.
Xeneta’s XSI short-term rate index saw Far East-US west coast rates up 1.7% week on week, to end at $8,346 per 40ft, while the Far East-US east coast showed a 0.7% gain, to $11,523 per 40ft.
Meanwhile, this week’s World Container Index (WCI) from Drewry recorded a 1% gain on its Shanghai-New York leg, to $10,428 per 40ft, while its Shanghai-Los Angeles route was flat, at $7,835 per 40ft.
In any case, the diagnosis was the same: “Part of the reason behind the turn is port congestion in Asia easing as typhoon season winds down, compounded by Golden Week and national holidays in China lowering exports in the first week of October.
“Demand is not strong and rates have now peaked, but they will not collapse, so shippers should expect to pay elevated freight costs for the remainder of the year,” Mr Sand said, adding that the elevated spot rate spread between east and west coasts is expected to diminish over the remainder of 2026.
“There will be nuances in the decline between the US trades, however, with rates into east coast potentially falling harder than into the west coast – the spread will narrow as the broader decline takes hold, driven mainly by a harder fall into the US east coast due to its more elevated starting point.
“Rolling forward three months, that could see spot rates into the east coast in the range of $6,000-$7,000, and to the west coast around $4,500-$5,500,” he added.
Meanwhile, spot rates on the Asia-Europe trades saw their twelfth consecutive week of declines, as well as the first post-peak season attempt by carriers to reverse the pricing movement.
The WCI’s Shanghai-Rotterdam route decreased 2%, to $3,399 per 40ft, while its Shanghai-Genoa leg was down 3%, to $3,702 per 40ft, despite some last-minute pre-Golden Week activity.
“We had a slight up-tick in bookings for sailings pre-Golden Week, and I expect a few to be rolled as we had no restrictions on bookings,” one large European forwarder told The Loadstar.
“Bookings for post-Golden Week seem steady so far,” he added, suggesting this indicated continued weak demand after the holiday.
Nonetheless, carriers have begun to introduce new FAK (freight all kinds) rate levels for the second half of the month in an effort to arrest the declines – MSC announced a new FAK of $4,500 per 40ft on both Far East-North Europe and Far East-west Mediterranean shipments beginning 19 October, while CMA CGM has announced a $4,700 per 40ft FAK rate on Far East-west Mediterranean, and $4,900 per 40ft on Far East-east Mediterranean, also for 19 October.
However, the forwarder said, carriers were also still cutting spot rates which meant the chances of a mid-month rate hike sticking were slim.
“We’re still receiving reductions on FAK rates for the first half of October, which make the rate increases of around $1,000 per 40ft, that I’ve seen for the second half of the month, confusing,” the European forwarder continued.
“If carriers have enough cargo for a roll pool to increase rates, then why reduce rates for sailings in the first half?
“My feeling is it’s an optimistic push to keep rates up and/or slow the decline – I don’t see it coming from an increase in demand,” he added.