The United States and Iran have stepped back from the brink of all-out war, but the ceasefire that followed nearly four months of fighting is still being tested by flare-ups around the Strait of Hormuz. One outcome of the crisis, though, is already clear: the clean energy transition is speeding up, and shows no sign of slowing. The war is just the latest in a string of conflicts to send shockwaves through oil and gas markets in recent years, leaving global leaders increasingly wary of dependence on fossil fuel imports and underscoring the energy independence benefits of solar power.
Nowhere in the world was hit harder by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz than Asian markets. Before the United States and Israel launched a joint military campaign against Iran on Feb. 28, one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas trade flowed through the Strait of Hormuz on any given day, headed east out of the Persian Gulf. Of the roughly 20 million barrels of oil and oil products that passed through the strait each day before the war, about 80 percent of oil and 90 percent of natural gas were destined for Asian markets.
When the Strait closed in response to the military campaign, Asian markets were hit hard and hit early by the stemmed flow. Southeast Asia, in particular, was extremely vulnerable to price volatility because of the region’s relatively high dependence on energy imports and low capacity to absorb market shocks. The fallout has been concrete, not hypothetical: the Philippines declared a national energy emergency in March, and governments across the region turned to energy rationing, work-from-home mandates, and even four-day work weeks to manage the strain. But the same crisis has also kickstarted a much-needed renewable revolution that will render the region more energy-secure, independent, and autonomous going forward.
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Rooftop solar, in particular, is going gangbusters in countries including the Philippines, Indonesia, Cambodia, and Malaysia as locals look for alternative energy solutions amid soaring prices and uncertain grid stability. This is a reflection of a much larger sea change taking place in the spheres of energy policy and security at a global scale. Historically, fossil fuels have represented stability and reliability where energy security is concerned, while solar and wind power have been viewed as riskier due to the variability of their production and the relative newness of their supply chains.
But now, that script has flipped. Driven in large part by the monthslong energy crisis emanating out of the Strait of Hormuz, renewables are increasingly viewed as the more dependable, less geopolitically risky option. “Wind and solar cannot be embargoed, blockaded, or shut off by a foreign power,” David Frykman, General Partner at Stockholm-based venture capital group Norrsken, wrote in an op-ed for Fortune earlier this year. “Every terawatt-hour of domestic renewable generation is a terawatt-hour that no adversary can weaponize.”
Oil and gas have to be sourced from countries with naturally rich deposits, resulting in major geopolitical chokepoints like Hormuz. Comparatively, solar and wind power are far more decentralized and democratic, with the potential to be produced – to varying degrees of efficiency – just about anywhere humans are concentrated. In addition to this strategic benefit, solar power is now far and away the cheapest form of energy on Earth, making a renewable revolution a no-brainer for countries like Indonesia and Philippines who are already experiencing major disruptions to their import-dependent status quo. It’s no longer about the climate crisis – solar just makes good economic and political sense.
“For years, clean energy has been sold as a moral imperative. Now it is simply an economic and geopolitical necessity,” Forbes reported earlier this year. “It’s not about emissions. It’s about resilience and price stability.”
This development will not only serve to insulate Southeast Asian energy grids against the volatility of global energy markets, it is also serving to further shift the balance of power away from the West and toward China when it comes to energy influence. China’s near-total dominance of global clean energy tech and manufacturing supply chains puts it in an ideal position to become an increasingly indispensable trading partner in emerging markets. The Philippines is the starkest example: it became China’s second-largest solar export market this year, behind only the Netherlands and ahead of longtime buyer Pakistan, with Chinese solar shipments to the country topping 4,000 megawatts in just the first four months of 2026, according to the energy think tank Ember.
Автор: Хейли Заремба Oilprice.com
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