Libya’s Fragile Peace Faces a New Threat

The mutually beneficial corruption arrangement between the rival Haftar and Dbeibah camps that has kept Libya from returning to civil war could be undone by a third force usually left out of political calculations: the citizens of Libya.

For nearly six years, Libya’s eastern and western power centers have preserved an uneasy equilibrium. Haftar’s family controls the east, much of the south, and the military forces surrounding much of the key oil infrastructure. Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and the armed groups aligned with his GNU control Tripoli and the western state apparatus. Neither side has been able to eliminate the other, but both have profited from a division that allows them to distribute government positions, contracts and oil revenues without submitting to a national election. 

The Trump administration is now trying to convert that informal accommodation into a formal power-sharing structure. The deal would preserve Dbeibah’s control of the government but give Saddam Haftar (General Khalifa Haftar’s son) control over a new presidential body. Washington has also pushed the rival administrations toward a unified budget and closer military coordination while encouraging U.S. oil companies to expand their presence around Africa’s largest proven crude reserves. In theory, this would give ruling families what they want most: continued access to the state without an election that could remove either of them.

But it all assumes that Libyans are passively on board. It assumes that Libyans will continue to tolerate a political system that produces oil wealth but can’t reliably produce electricity. During a heatwave that pushed temperatures above 48 degrees Celsius, blackouts lasting between 10 and 14 hours a day triggered protests across Tripoli, Tajoura, Janzour, Zawiya and Misrata. Demonstrators closed roads and government offices, erected barriers outside ministries and demanded the removal not only of Dbeibah’s government but of the political authorities in both east and west. It’s not simply another protest that will fizzle out. At this point, it appears to be an indictment of the status quo. 

This time, they stormed the Mellitah oil and gas complex, halting production at the 80,000-90,000-barrel-per-day El Feel oilfield, partially suspended the Wafa field, and interrupted gas deliveries to power stations already struggling to keep the grid operating. Security forces regained control and production resumed within hours, but it is now clear that the people have the power to disrupt, as well.