Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices remain close to their highest levels since the end of 2022 as the lack of LNG supply from Qatar compounds the EU problem of filling depleted storage sites ahead of the winter.
The front-month price at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, fell by 1% as of 9 a.m. Amsterdam time on Thursday, amid a slide in crude oil futures.
But at $96.56 (86.03 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh), the price is now at its highest levels since December 2022, when Europe faced the first winter without most of the Russian pipeline gas supply.
EU storage sites were only 74% full as of October 14, per data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. That’s well below the five-year average of about 86% for this time of the year so close to the start of the heating season.
With supply concerns growing, European gas prices remain at the levels seen in the 2022-2023 energy crisis as LNG supply from the Middle East has not recovered at the same pace oil flows have.
“Unfortunately for the natural gas market, we have not seen a similar recovery in LNG flows from the Persian Gulf as we have with oil,” Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, said in a note on Thursday.
LNG flows from the Middle East remain about 80% lower compared to last year’s volumes.
“The market is increasingly accepting that Persian Gulf LNG could remain largely absent from global markets for much of the Northern Hemisphere winter,” Patterson said, noting that Europe and Asia will continue to compete for spot LNG supply, keeping gas and spot LNG prices well supported.
Prices are vulnerable to further spikes in case of colder winters in either Europe or Asia, or both, or if another supply disruption hits the market.
As Europe enters the winter with lower-than-usual buffers, and Asia has mostly used its demand-side flexibility, there is a risk of late-winter price spikes, consultancy Timera Energy said this week in its winter gas outlook.
“Our winter 2026/27 outlook assumes Hormuz remains closed through Q4 2026, with gradual reopening through Q1 2027. Under this scenario, late-winter price upside becomes particularly acute if European stocks run low,” the analysts said.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
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