Tougher customs treatment of low-value airfreight shipments is threatening to reverse some of the ecommerce sector’s rapid growth, according to new analysis from Trade and Transport Group.
The consultancy’s latest report estimates that cross-border ecommerce accounted for almost 18% of intercontinental air cargo traffic last year, despite representing only around 6% of global online sales.
China is overwhelmingly the dominant origin, accounting for more than 80% of cross-border ecommerce revenue, made up almost entirely by three platforms – Temu, Shein, and AliExpress – which together account for close to 100% of Chinese ecommerce exports.
However, Trade and Transport Group found that revenue had fallen 4.5% in the first six months of 2026, with all major markets, except Asia Pacific, recording significant declines. And a large part of this has been the US market experiencing the effects of tighter low-value shipment rules.
Following the removal of the US de minimis duty exemption, ecommerce traffic from China fell from around 110,000 tonnes a month to approximately 35,000 tonnes – although Trade and Transport noted the market had begun to normalise since May.
But the consultancy warned of further pressure in the EU, following the introduction of a €3-per-item customs charge on low-value e-commerce shipments last month, the consequences of which could extend beyond individual platforms and routes.
Trade and Transport said it expected the tighter customs treatment to encourage more local inventory and fulfilment, reducing direct China-to-consumer traffic and prompting a shift from pre-labelled parcels to consolidated shipments. And that could also move more ecommerce freight from air to sea, particularly in the large European and North American markets, says the report.
It suggests the cross-border ecommerce supply chain could consequently begin to resemble the traditional retail model more closely – with potentially significant implications for air cargo demand.
A full copy of the report, including the state and outlook for the cross-border ecommerce business and how it will affect the air cargo business, can be found here: E-Commerce Report – Trade and Transport Group