{"id":7004,"date":"2026-10-13T18:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-13T15:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mikhailinvest.com\/saudi-arabia-becomes-the-oil-markets-biggest-wild-card\/"},"modified":"2026-10-13T18:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T15:00:00","slug":"saudi-arabia-becomes-the-oil-markets-biggest-wild-card","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mikhailinvest.com\/zh\/saudi-arabia-becomes-the-oil-markets-biggest-wild-card\/","title":{"rendered":"Saudi Arabia Becomes the Oil Market\u2019s Biggest Wild Card"},"content":{"rendered":"

Houthi attacks threaten Saudi oil infrastructure and Gulf shipping as Brent hovers near $105 per barrel.<\/p>\n

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Trump\u2019s Fuel-Price Problem Is Becoming a Political One<\/strong><\/p>\n

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– The Trump administration\u2019s Russia diesel deal has failed<\/a> to bring about substantial change in US fuel prices, triggering a 3-4% decline in heating oil futures, raising the risks of a midterm election debacle for the White House.\u00a0<\/p>\n

– Whilst neither diesel nor heating oil have surpassed the levels seen in October 2022 (the month before President Biden\u2019s mid-term elections) in inflation-adjusted terms, the fact that the US population perceives the fuel crisis as the result of Trump\u2019s Iran war matters greatly.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

– Yet beyond fuel prices, Trump\u2019s fervent support for the construction of data centers could become an electoral liability as US power prices have reached their highest level in real terms since the mid-1990s.<\/p>\n

– Michigan and Texas would be of particular importance for the US president as they both host several tossup races in the House and Senate \u2013 wielding a higher per-capita consumption of gasoline and lower disposable income than the US average.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

– Since President Trump began his current presidential term in January 2025, US gasoline and diesel prices have gone up by 40% and 67%, respectively, whilst cumulative inflation edged higher by 5.4%. <\/p>\n

Market Movers<\/strong>
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– London-based energy major Shell<\/strong> (LON:SHEL) has \u7b7e\u540d<\/a> an agreement to acquire a 30% interest in Equinor\u2019s $10 billion Bay du Nord offshore oil project off Canada\u2019s Newfoundland coast, with a final investment decision expected in early 2027.<\/p>\n

– US oil major \u96ea\u4f5b\u9f99<\/strong> (NYSE:CVX) \u6700\u7ec8\u5b9a\u7a3f<\/a> an offshore exploration deal in Egypt, giving it operatorship over the Lotus area against a pledge to drill two exploration wells in 2,000-2,800m of water.<\/p>\n

– Greek refiner Motor Oil Hellas<\/strong> (ATH:MOH) \u636e\u62a5\u9053<\/a> a casualty following an incident at its 255,000 b\/d Corinth refinery, with the death of a contractor taking place whilst the plant was undergoing maintenance works.\u00a0<\/p>\n

– Italian oil company ENI<\/strong> (BIT:ENI) has \u540c\u610f<\/a> to divest part of its ownership with Indonesia\u2019s state firm Pertamina and independent driller Medco Energi, creating synergies for its giant Geng North discovery from 2023.<\/p>\n

– French oil major TotalEnergies<\/strong> (NYSE:TTE) has \u5ba3\u5e03<\/a> it would expand its joint venture with US investment firm KKR (NYSE:KKR) to boost its additional renewables portfolio valued at $1.2 billion, aiming for solar assets in Texas and Ohio.

<\/strong>Tuesday, October 13, 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia is gradually becoming the embodiment of supply risks to oil markets this month, with the Houthis forcing the Riyadh airport into a protracted shutdown and threatening to further damage the kingdom\u2019s energy infrastructure. Simultaneously, a proliferation of missile strikes on tankers seeking to transit the Hormuz keeps Gulf flows on tenterhooks, whilst most of media attention is drawn to the wishy-washy US-Russia diesel deal. The emerging Saudi-Houthi war will define this week\u2019s trading range as ICE Brent keeps on trending around $105 per barrel.<\/p>\n

Trump Opens the Door to Russian Diesel. <\/strong>US President Trump lifted sanctions on Russian exports of diesel, with Moscow pledging<\/a> to deliver 300,000 tonnes (75,000 b\/d) in October, rising to 500,000 tonnes in November (125,000 b\/d) and peaking at 1 million tonnes (250,000 b\/d) by year-end 2026.<\/p>\n

OPEC Pushes the Oil Demand Recovery Into 2027. <\/strong>OPEC has \u524a\u51cf<\/a> its demand forecast growth this year to 400,000 b\/d (a stark contrast to the IEA\u2019s 1.6 million b\/d contraction), down from 1.4 million b\/d before the US-Iran war started, deferring the recovery in global consumption to 2027.<\/p>\n

Washington Taps the SPR After Hurricane Isaias. <\/strong>The US Energy Department authorized<\/a> an emergency exchange of up to 4 million barrels of crude to keep refinery runs across the Gulf Coast after Hurricane Isaias shut 70% of offshore output at its peak, with firms required to return the oil.<\/p>\n

Riyadh Attacks Empty the Energy Congress\u2019s Top Table. <\/strong>The chief executives of ExxonMobil, TotalEnergies, Shell, Chevron and BP disappeared<\/a> from the schedule of the World Petroleum Congress in Saudi Arabia as Houthi attacks on the Riyadh threaten the kingdom\u2019s security image.<\/p>\n

Trump Declares an Invisible Energy Truce. <\/strong>US President Trump says Russia and Ukraine agreed to halt energy attacks, however Ukrainian President Zelenskyy claimed he had received no details of the truce while Washington threatened to suspend intelligence and arms support to pressure Kyiv.<\/p>\n

Fatal Landslide Halts Part of El Teniente. <\/strong>Chile\u2019s state-controlled mining giant Codelco suspended<\/a> operations at the El Teniente copper mine after heavy rainfall triggered a landslide that killed two contractors, with the output halt triggering a rebound in LME copper prices to $14,620 per tonne.<\/p>\n

US LNG Fills Spain\u2019s Russian Supply Gap. <\/strong>Spanish LNG importers completely halted<\/a> imports of Russian liquefied gas last month, substituting Yamal LNG flows with incremental purchases from the US as American cargoes supplied a record 48% of Spain\u2019s gas in September, totalling 13.46TWh.<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia Mulls a Bigger Escape Route. <\/strong>Saudi national oil company Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222<\/strong>) is aiming to expand its Hormuz bypassing<\/a> capacity by another 3 million b\/d to 10 million b\/d by 2030, beginning with a dual-use gas pipeline capable of carrying 1.2mn b\/d of crude.
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China Eyes the Data Behind LME Metal Flows. <\/strong>China\u2019s state-backed infrastructure investor Shanghai International Port Group is \u636e\u8bf4<\/a> in talks to buy LME-approved warehousing firm H&M Metal Warehousing, seeking to expand Chinese exposure to data and flows within the LME infrastructure.<\/p>\n

IEA Pushes for Another Diesel Lifeline. <\/strong>The International Energy Agency said that its members should consider<\/a> further releases of diesel from strategic stocks following the 50-million-barrel release agreed in early October, meeting on October 15 to \u2018take stock\u2019 of efforts taken up until now.Dangote Gives Africa\u2019s Biggest IPO Two More Weeks. <\/strong>Nigeria\u2019s top refinery, the 700,000 b\/d Dangote plant, has \u6269\u5c55<\/a> its share offering to October 27 as it seeks to bolster interest from global institutions, targeting a $1.6 billion capital raise to finance doubling its capacity by 2029.<\/p>\n

Shell Warns of Australia\u2019s Gas Reserve \u2018Sledgehammer\u2019. <\/strong>Cecile Wake, the head of Shell Australia, \u8b66\u544a<\/a> that Canberra\u2019s plan to force LNG exporters to reserve up to 20% of output from 2028 is a \u2018sledgehammer\u2019 solution, risking market failure as gas prices would fall too low for producers.

<\/strong>French State Takes Over Key Mining Giant. T<\/strong>he French government will raise<\/a> its stake in the nickel, manganese and lithium producer Eramet (EPA:ERA) from 27% to as much as 49% through a $600-million capital increase and share purchase, as Paris seeks to secure access to strategic metals.
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Kashagan\u2019s $5.2 Billion Fine Moves Closer to Collection. <\/strong>A Kazakh court rejected the NCOC consortium\u2019s appeal against the environmental penalty for excess sulphur storage and other alleged breaches at the Kashagan offshore field, leaving the legally binding fine open to enforced collection.<\/p>\n

Beijing Puts the Brakes on Its EV Export Boom. <\/strong>China will cut the export tax rebate<\/a> on its new energy vehicles (NEV) to 9% from 13%, effective from 1 April 2027, increasing the export costs of Chinese EV carmakers from next year onwards and likely triggering a front-loading spree in Q4 2026.<\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aTom Kool\uff0c\u6765\u6e90\uff1aOilprice.com<\/p>\n

\u66f4\u591a\u6765\u81ea Oilprice.com \u7684\u70ed\u95e8\u6587\u7ae0<\/strong><\/p>\n