{"id":3653,"date":"2026-06-29T13:31:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T10:31:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mikhailinvest.com\/oil-prices-climb-as-u-s-iran-flare-up-shakes-market-complacency\/"},"modified":"2026-06-29T13:31:00","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T10:31:00","slug":"oil-prices-climb-as-u-s-iran-flare-up-shakes-market-complacency","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mikhailinvest.com\/zh\/oil-prices-climb-as-u-s-iran-flare-up-shakes-market-complacency\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Prices Climb as U.S.-Iran Flare-Up Shakes Market Complacency"},"content":{"rendered":"

Oil prices were climbing early on Monday morning after a fresh escalation between the U.S. and Iran over the weekend. The price rise was relatively delayed, as markets continue to price in a potential peace deal while discounting more bullish geopolitical catalysts.<\/p>\n

A growing number of analysts have been arguing that markets are being too optimistic about a quick return of Hormuz traffic and too complacent about the continued drawdown in global inventories to multi-decade lows.<\/p>\n

\u622a\u81f3\u64b0\u5199\u672c\u6587\u65f6\uff0c, Brent Crude prices<\/a> were up by 1.18% at $72.84 per barrel, while the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude<\/a>, was up 1.73% at $70.43.<\/p>\n

The latest price movement appears to suggest that the market is concerned about a reduction in tanker traffic through Hormuz following attacks on two commercial vessels on Thursday and Friday last week, and a further flare-up over the weekend.<\/p>\n

The Thursday attack on the container ship Ever Lovely prompted some shipowners to pull back and wait<\/a> for additional information about how safe transiting the Strait is. The U.S. military on Friday carried out strikes on Iran in response to the attack on the vessel.<\/p>\n

On Saturday, an Iranian attack on a Panama-flagged oil tanker, Kiku, while it was transiting the Strait of Hormuz prompted additional strikes<\/a> by the U.S. forces. \u00a0<\/p>\n

After the flare-up this weekend, the U.S. and Iran appear to have agreed to cease attacks ahead of tentatively planned new talks this week.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cParticipants appear to be shrugging off these developments, instead focusing on what a continued recovery in oil flows would mean for the global balance,\u201d ING\u2019s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey warned in a note<\/a> on Monday.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis complacency is odd and clearly leaves significant upside risk if the supply recovery proves slow \u2013 or if we see significant re-escalation. While the oil market is technically in oversold territory, momentum appears to still be to the downside,\u201d they added.<\/p>\n

ING\u2019s strategists continue to believe \u201cthe market is too optimistic about the timeline for a recovery in Persian Gulf supplies.\u201d<\/p>\n

The recent price movement suggests that reality might be setting in at last.<\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aOilprice.com \u7684 Tsvetana Paraskova<\/p>\n

\u66f4\u591a\u6765\u81ea Oilprice.com \u7684\u70ed\u95e8\u6587\u7ae0<\/strong><\/p>\n