{"id":3385,"date":"2026-06-18T02:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mikhailinvest.com\/state-of-global-oil-inventories-ruins-iran-peace-optimism\/"},"modified":"2026-06-18T02:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T23:00:00","slug":"state-of-global-oil-inventories-ruins-iran-peace-optimism","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mikhailinvest.com\/zh\/state-of-global-oil-inventories-ruins-iran-peace-optimism\/","title":{"rendered":"State of Global Oil Inventories Ruins Iran Peace Optimism"},"content":{"rendered":"

As oil benchmarks crash and Brent slips below $80 per barrel, a growing number of analysts are sounding an alarm: Hormuz may reopen, but oil production in the region would not rebound immediately\u2014and the world\u2019s oil inventories are depleting.<\/p>\n

Back in May, Carlyle Group\u2019s Jeff Currie \u8b66\u544a<\/a> that by July, parts of the world would face what he dubbed \u201cminimum operational levels\u201d of crude oil supply due to depletion resulting from storage withdrawals to avoid shortages amid the Hormuz crisis.<\/p>\n

Energy Aspects analysts also noted<\/a>, at the start of June, that even if a peace deal is signed, it would take a while for tanker traffic to return to pre-war levels. In the meantime, the world was using oil from inventories. As reports about a deal between the United States and Iran multiplied in the past few days, so did warnings about not expecting an immediate return to normal in terms of oil production and exports from the Persian Gulf.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhile the conflict may have come to an end and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may gradually return to normal, the damage already done cannot be reversed overnight,\u201d Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva said earlier this week, as \u5f15<\/a> by Bloomberg. \u201cThis includes not only any physical damage to oil infrastructure but also the economic strain endured by oil-importing economies that have faced elevated energy costs for months.\u201d<\/p>\n

The publication collected the reactions of several analysts from the energy space, and none of them supported the assumption that once the deal between the U.S. and Iran is signed\u2014which is far from a certainty\u2014oil flows via the Hormuz would miraculously rebound. A Vortexa analyst made an important point about insurance, as well. \u201cIf the US-Iran deal is completed and insurance companies are willing to insure the vessels, ballast tanker transits would increase, followed by the restart of crude production and then the restart of refineries,\u201d senior market analyst Xavier Tang said. Related: IEA Sees Massive Oil Surplus In 2027 As Middle East Supply Returns<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, oil industry executives have also stepped up warnings about the state of global oil inventories. \u201cOver the next few weeks, we\u2019re likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices, and there\u2019s more upwards pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July,\u201d Chevron\u2019s chief executive Mike Wirth said in early June.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re approaching unheard of inventory levels,\u201d Exxon senior VP Neil Chapman also warned on low inventory levels at the time. \u201cI mean really, really low levels,\u201d he said. \u201cYou can debate whether that\u2019s going to hit, those really low levels, in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you\u2019ll see price shoot up.\u201d<\/p>\n

U.S. crude oil inventories have been on an extended decline, with the latest weekly \u62a5\u544a<\/a> from the American Petroleum Institute showing the last nine weeks have seen the total reduced by 52 million barrels. Reserves at Cushing are also significantly down, to about 21 million barrels, according to a recent Wall Street Journal \u62a5\u544a<\/a> that noted how \u201cAt roughly 20 million barrels, tank operators begin running into a variety of complications.\u201d<\/p>\n

Such complications first surfaced about the strategic petroleum reserve system when the Biden administration released some 180 million barrels to rein in oil prices in 2022 after the West bombarded Russia with sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine. The complications arise from the need to keep a certain level of oil in the storage caverns so they can remain operational. The U.S. is not the only country that has been drawing on reserves to keep demand covered, which means demand to refill those reserves is looming over a market that has yet to return to normal operation and that still features rather healthy demand overall.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, no one besides oil traders seems enthusiastic about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Insurers, as noted by Vortexa\u2019s analyst above, are taking a naturally cautious stance, waiting to see what happens on Friday and afterward before they return to business as usual. Shippers are not eager to get sailing, either. \u201cWe’re not seeing any big shipowners changing their stance at this point. They’re staying put for now,\u201d the global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd. told Bloomberg. \u201cAs of now, no one has a clear understanding of the terms and text of this agreement,\u201d said Anoop Singh.<\/p>\n

It appears the oil market is once again in a dual reality. One side of that duality is the futures market, ruled by media reports that fuel optimism about the end of hostilities in the Persian Gulf and the normalization of energy trade, overlooking the numerous challenges on the way to that normalization. The other side is the physical market, which has seen actual oil prices soar much higher than the benchmarks on the futures market, and which has experienced significant inventory drawdowns that oil-importing nations would be eager to replenish at first opportunity\u2014just in case.<\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aIrina Slav\uff0c\u6765\u6e90\uff1aOilprice.com<\/p>\n

\u66f4\u591a\u6765\u81ea Oilprice.com \u7684\u70ed\u95e8\u6587\u7ae0<\/strong><\/p>\n