{"id":2801,"date":"2026-06-03T03:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-03T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mikhailinvest.com\/how-long-can-demand-destruction-keep-a-lid-on-oil-prices\/"},"modified":"2026-06-03T03:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-06-03T00:00:00","slug":"%e4%bb%a5%e7%a0%b4%e5%9d%8f%e4%b8%ba%e7%94%b1%e6%8a%91%e5%88%b6%e6%b2%b9%e4%bb%b7%e8%83%bd%e6%8c%81%e7%bb%ad%e5%a4%9a%e4%b9%85%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mikhailinvest.com\/zh\/how-long-can-demand-destruction-keep-a-lid-on-oil-prices\/","title":{"rendered":"\u9700\u6c42\u4e0b\u964d\u80fd\u6291\u5236\u6cb9\u4ef7\u591a\u4e45\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u4ee4\u4eba\u8d39\u89e3\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5c3d\u7ba1\u77f3\u6cb9\u4f9b\u5e94\u4e2d\u65ad\u8fbe\u5230\u4e86\u5386\u53f2\u6700\u9ad8\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4f46\u6cb9\u4ef7\u5374\u5c1a\u672a\u98d9\u5347\u81f3\u5386\u53f2\u65b0\u9ad8\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u5e02\u573a\u4ecd\u7136\u5e0c\u671b\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u5371\u673a\u80fd\u591f\u8fc5\u901f\u89e3\u51b3\uff08\u5df2\u7ecf\u6301\u7eed\u4e09\u4e2a\u591a\u6708\u4e86\uff09\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5e93\u5b58\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u4f9b\u5e94\u7f13\u51b2\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u6700\u5927\u7684\u539f\u6cb9\u8fdb\u53e3\u56fd\u4e2d\u56fd\u907f\u514d\u8d2d\u4e70\u73b0\u8d27\uff0c\u6700\u540e\u4f46\u540c\u6837\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5728\u9ad8\u6cb9\u4ef7\u7684\u80cc\u666f\u4e0b\uff0c\u9700\u6c42\u840e\u7f29\u6b63\u5728\u52a0\u901f\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>\u9664\u4e86\u8fd1\u671f\u4f9b\u5e94\u6df7\u4e71\u548c\u4e2d\u4e1c\u6218\u4e89\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u76f8\u4e92\u77db\u76fe\u7684\u4fe1\u53f7\u4e4b\u5916\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u4eba\u58eb\u8fd8\u5728\u601d\u8003\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u51b2\u7a81\u89e3\u51b3\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u635f\u5931\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u4f1a\u6c38\u4e45\u6d88\u5931\u3002.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>\u5e93\u5b58\u76ee\u524d\u7f13\u89e3\u4e86\u4f9b\u5e94\u4e2d\u65ad\u5e26\u6765\u7684\u51b2\u51fb\u3002<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u521d\u671f\u5e02\u573a\u9762\u4e34\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u8fc7\u5269\uff0c\u5728\u51b2\u7a81\u8fdb\u5165\u7b2c\u56db\u4e2a\u6708\u4e4b\u9645\uff0c\u7f13\u89e3\u4e86\u6cb9\u4ef7\u4e0a\u6da8\u7684\u538b\u529b\u3002\u4f46\u9664\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ee5\u5916\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u539f\u6cb9\u5e93\u5b58\u6b63\u4ee5\u521b\u7eaa\u5f55\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u6d88\u8017\uff0c\u8fd9\u8868\u660e\u5e93\u5b58\u7f13\u51b2\u6b63\u5728\u8fc5\u901f\u8017\u5c3d\uff0c\u4f9b\u5e94\u635f\u5931\u7684\u771f\u6b63\u89c4\u6a21\u5f88\u5feb\u5c31\u4f1a\u5bf9\u5e02\u573a\u9020\u6210\u51b2\u51fb\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>\u9664\u4e2d\u56fd\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5df2\u7ecf\u79ef\u7d2f\u4e86 <a href=\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/Latest-Energy-News\/World-News\/China-Boosts-Oil-Stockpiles-Despite-Import-Plunge.html\">\u5927\u91cf\u7f13\u51b2\u5e93\u5b58<\/a> \u636e Kpler \u79f0\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e00\u5e74\u5168\u7403\u539f\u6cb9\u5e93\u5b58\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u8d85\u8fc7 12 \u4ebf\u6876\uff0c\u800c\u4e16\u754c\u5176\u4ed6\u5730\u533a\u7684\u9646\u4e0a\u539f\u6cb9\u5e93\u5b58\u5374\u4ee5\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5feb\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u4e0b\u964d\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>5\u6708\u521d\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u539f\u6cb9\u5e93\u5b58\u4e0b\u964d\u901f\u5ea6\u7565\u9ad8\u4e8e150\u4e07\u6876\/\u65e5\u3002Kpler\u7684\u6570\u636e\u663e\u793a\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u8fd9\u4e00\u4e0b\u964d\u901f\u5ea6\u5df2\u8dc3\u5347\u81f3\u8fd1170\u4e07\u6876\/\u65e5\uff0c\u8868\u660e\u672a\u6765\u4f9b\u5e94\u53ef\u80fd\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u7d27\u5f20\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>\u5c06 OilPrice.com \u8bbe\u7f6e\u4e3a Google \u7684\u9996\u9009\u6765\u6e90\u3002 .<\/p>\n<p>\u968f\u7740\u5e93\u5b58\u5f00\u59cb\u4e0b\u964d\uff0c\u6cb9\u4ef7\u98d9\u5347\u81f3\u6bcf\u6876$100\u7f8e\u5143\u751a\u81f3\u66f4\u9ad8\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u9700\u6c42\u3002\u4e9a\u6d32\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u88ab\u8feb\u5927\u5e45\u524a\u51cf\u71c3\u6cb9\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u539f\u56e0\u662f\u6cb9\u4ef7\u98d9\u5347\u4ee5\u53ca\u653f\u5e9c\u91c7\u53d6\u63aa\u65bd\u6291\u5236\u71c3\u6cb9\u6d88\u8017\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u7f29\u77ed\u5de5\u4f5c\u5468\u548c\u63a8\u884c\u516c\u52a1\u5458\u5c45\u5bb6\u529e\u516c\u8ba1\u5212\u3002\u4f46\u6b27\u6d32\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4e5f\u56e0\u9ad8\u6cb9\u4ef7\u548c\u673a\u7968\u4ef7\u683c\u800c\u51cf\u5c11\u4e86\u9700\u6c42\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u81ea3\u67081\u65e5\u7f8e\u56fd\u88ad\u51fb\u4f0a\u6717\u4ee5\u6765\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u6c7d\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u7d2f\u8ba1\u4e0a\u6da8\u4e86\u2026\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/GasBuddyGuy\/status\/2061513803238428888\">\u73b0\u5728 $400 \u4ebf<\/a>, $400-$600 \u767e\u4e07\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u6b63\u5728\u4e3a\u6c7d\u6cb9\u652f\u4ed8\u66f4\u591a\u8d39\u7528 <em>\u6bcf\u5929<\/em> \u636e GasBuddy \u77f3\u6cb9\u5206\u6790\u4e3b\u7ba1 Patrick De Haan \u79f0\uff0c\u8fc7\u53bb\u4e09\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u60c5\u51b5\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6218\u7565\u77f3\u6cb9\u50a8\u5907\uff08SPR\uff09\u8ddd\u79bb\u964d\u81f31983\u5e748\u6708\u4ee5\u6765\u7684\u6700\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\u4ec5\u5269\u4e0d\u523010\u5929\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\uff0c\u800c\u8fd9\u4e00\u6c34\u5e73\u81ea1977\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u9996\u6b21\u50a8\u5907SPR\u4ee5\u6765\u4ece\u672a\u89c1\u8fc7\uff0c\u5fb7\u54c8\u6069\u8bf4\u9053\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/GasBuddyGuy\/status\/2061507831778484394\">\u8bf4<\/a> \u5468\u4e00\u3002.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>\u9700\u6c42\u6291\u5236\u5f00\u59cb\u53d1\u6325\u4f5c\u7528<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u968f\u7740\u6210\u672c\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4f1a\u91cd\u65b0\u8003\u8651\u5728\u6c7d\u6cb9\u4e0a\u7684\u652f\u51fa\u3002\u5e93\u5b58\u9aa4\u51cf\u65f6\uff0c\u6cb9\u4ef7\u5f80\u5f80\u4f1a\u98d9\u5347\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u8fc4\u4eca\u4e3a\u6b62\uff0c\u9700\u6c42\u840e\u7f29\u5e45\u5ea6\u5982\u6b64\u4e4b\u5927\uff0c\u5df2\u7ecf\u6291\u5236\u4e86\u4ef7\u683c\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u518d\u52a0\u4e0a\u4e2d\u56fd\u7531\u4e8e\u5df2\u7ecf\u79ef\u7d2f\u4e86\u8db3\u591f\u7ef4\u6301\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u7684\u5e93\u5b58\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u4e0d\u613f\u4ece\u73b0\u8d27\u539f\u6cb9\u5e02\u573a\u8d2d\u4e70\u539f\u6cb9\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u77f3\u6cb9\u7b56\u7565\u5e08\u5a1c\u5854\u838e\u00b7\u5361\u5185\u5a03\u3001\u67f3\u82ad\u00b7\u8428\u7ef4\u8bfa\u5a03\u548c\u963f\u5c14\u4e54\u59c6\u00b7\u6cd5\u8d6b\u5217\u5b63\u8bfa\u592b\u5728\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u5199\u9053\uff0c\u5c24\u5176\u662f\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\uff0c\u77f3\u6cb9\u9700\u6c42\u66b4\u8dcc\u4e8691\u4e07\u4ebf\u5428\uff0c\u7ea6\u5408\u6bcf\u65e5150\u4e07\u6876\uff0c\u201c\u8fd9\u79cd\u66b4\u8dcc\u6765\u5f97\u7a81\u7136\u3001\u51fa\u4e4e\u610f\u6599\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u51e0\u4e4e\u6ca1\u6709\u9020\u6210\u4efb\u4f55\u660e\u663e\u7684\u5e72\u6270\u201d\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/finance.yahoo.com\/markets\/article\/the-world-is-quietly-adapting-to-9-less-oil-100000514.html\">\u96c5\u864e\u8d22\u7ecf<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong class=\"related\">\u6709\u5173\u7684\uff1a <a href=\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/Metals\/Gold\/Gold-Seesaws-on-Ceasefire-Headlines-as-NFP-Rate-Hike-Fears-Loom.html\">\u7531\u4e8e\u975e\u519c\u6570\u636e\u548c\u52a0\u606f\u62c5\u5fe7\u52a0\u5267\uff0c\u9ec4\u91d1\u4ef7\u683c\u53d7\u505c\u706b\u65b0\u95fb\u5f71\u54cd\u800c\u6ce2\u52a8\u3002<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u7684\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u201d\u770b\u6765\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5df2\u7ecf\u6084\u7136\u505a\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ecf\u6d4e\u9009\u62e9\u201d\uff0c\u5e76\u6307\u51fa\u4e2d\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u5df2\u7ecf\u8f6c\u5411\u7535\u52a8\u4ea4\u901a\u5de5\u5177\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u56fd\u4ee5\u5916\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u4e5f\u51fa\u4e8e\u7ecf\u6d4e\u8003\u8651\uff0c\u9009\u62e9\u51cf\u5c11\u5bf9\u4ef7\u683c\u6602\u8d35\u7684\u71c3\u6599\u7684\u652f\u51fa\u3002\u7535\u52a8\u6c7d\u8f66\u9500\u91cf <a href=\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/Latest-Energy-News\/World-News\/Europes-EV-Sales-Surge-as-Oil-Shock-Hits-Drivers.html\">\u6b63\u5728\u98d9\u5347<\/a> \u5728\u4e9a\u6d32\u548c\u6b27\u6d32\uff0c\u7f8e\u56fd\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u867d\u7136\u6ca1\u6709\u8702\u62e5\u8d2d\u4e70\u7535\u52a8\u6c7d\u8f66\uff08\u56e0\u4e3a\u6ca1\u6709\u8054\u90a6\u653f\u5e9c\u7684\u6fc0\u52b1\u63aa\u65bd\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e5f\u6b63\u5728\u79ef\u6781\u8d2d\u4e70\u7535\u52a8\u6c7d\u8f66\u3002 <a href=\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/Energy\/Energy-General\/Americans-Rethink-Driving-as-Fuel-Costs-Keep-Climbing.html\">\u91cd\u65b0\u601d\u8003\u9a7e\u9a76<\/a> \u7531\u4e8e\u56db\u5e74\u6765\u6700\u9ad8\u7684\u6c7d\u6cb9\u4ef7\u683c\u6b63\u5728\u6539\u53d8\u6d88\u8d39\u8005\u7684\u884c\u4e3a\uff0c\u901a\u52e4\u4eba\u6570\u4e5f\u5728\u589e\u52a0\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u4e8e\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u548c\u4e2d\u957f\u671f\u77f3\u6cb9\u5e02\u573a\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u6700\u5927\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff1a\u8fd9\u573a\u5371\u673a\u8fc7\u540e\uff0c\u9700\u6c42\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u6062\u590d\uff1f\u6216\u8005\uff0c\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u548c\u653f\u7b56\u5236\u5b9a\u8005\u662f\u5426\u4f1a\u9009\u62e9\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u5730\u7528\u7535\u52a8\u6c7d\u8f66\u3001\u592a\u9633\u80fd\u548c\u98ce\u80fd\u7b49\u4f4e\u78b3\u66ff\u4ee3\u80fd\u6e90\u53d6\u4ee3\u90e8\u5206\u77f3\u6cb9\u548c\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u6d88\u8d39\uff0c\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b21\u5730\u7f18\u653f\u6cbb\u5371\u673a\u4e2d\u63aa\u624b\u4e0d\u53ca\uff0c\u5bfc\u81f4\u77f3\u6cb9\u548c\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u4f9b\u5e94\u762b\u75ea\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u201c\u6469\u6839\u5927\u901a\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5728\u6700\u8fd1\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u95ee\u9053\uff1a\u201d\u6362\u53e5\u8bdd\u8bf4\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u77f3\u6cb9\u51cf\u5c11 9%\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u771f\u7684\u8fd8\u80fd\u6b63\u5e38\u8fd0\u8f6c\u5417\uff1f\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u76ee\u524d\u770b\u6765\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u4f3c\u4e4e\u522b\u65e0\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u7531\u4e8e\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u6d77\u5ce1\u4ecd\u7136\u5173\u95ed\uff0c\u71c3\u6cb9\u5e93\u5b58\u6b63\u88ab\u6d88\u8017\u81f3\u6781\u4f4e\u6c34\u5e73\uff0c\u4eba\u4eec\u6b63\u5bfb\u6c42\u7528\u7535\u52a8\u6c7d\u8f66\u66ff\u4ee3\u516c\u8def\u8fd0\u8f93\u71c3\u6599\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u5e72\u8106\u51cf\u5c11\u9a7e\u8f66\u548c\u98de\u884c\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>\u970d\u5c14\u6728\u5179\u5371\u673a\u6301\u7eed\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u8d8a\u957f\uff0c\u5f53\u524d\u7684\u4f9b\u5e94\u4e2d\u65ad\u5c31\u8d8a\u4e25\u91cd\uff0c\u8fd9\u5c06\u4fc3\u4f7f\u5404\u56fd\u653f\u5e9c\u91c7\u53d6\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u7684\u3001\u6709\u610f\u8bc6\u7684\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u4ee5\u907f\u514d\u518d\u6b21\u5982\u6b64\u4f9d\u8d56\u4e2d\u4e1c\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u548c\u5929\u7136\u6c14\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u4e9b\u6700\u521d\u56e0\u5371\u673a\u800c\u4ea7\u751f\u7684\u672c\u80fd\u53cd\u5e94\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u9700\u6c42\u840e\u7f29\uff0c\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u6f14\u53d8\u6210\u6c38\u4e45\u6027\u7684\u6d88\u8d39\u635f\u5931\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u9700\u6c42\u840e\u7f29\u76ee\u524d\u4e5f\u6709\u52a9\u4e8e\u6291\u5236\u6cb9\u4ef7\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0a\u6da8\u5bfc\u81f4\u7684\u9700\u91cf\u4e0b\u964d\u5c06 <a href=\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/Latest-Energy-News\/World-News\/Goldman-Sachs-Sees-Oil-Demand-Destruction-Offsetting-Supply-Shock-Risks.html\">\u7a0d\u5fae\u51cf\u8f7b\u6253\u51fb<\/a> \u9ad8\u76db\u5927\u5b97\u5546\u54c1\u5206\u6790\u5e08\u5728\u672c\u5468\u65e9\u4e9b\u65f6\u5019\u7684\u4e00\u4efd\u62a5\u544a\u4e2d\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u8fd9\u6e90\u4e8e\u73b0\u8d27\u4f9b\u5e94\u7d27\u5f20\u7684\u77f3\u6cb9\u5e02\u573a\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>\u4f46\u5e93\u5b58\u7f13\u51b2\u51e0\u4e4e\u8017\u5c3d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e5f\u5f00\u59cb\u51cf\u5c11\u5e93\u5b58\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u968f\u7740\u672a\u6765\u51e0\u4e2a\u6708\u4e2d\u56fd\u539f\u6cb9\u8d2d\u4e70\u91cf\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u5730\u53cd\u5f39\uff0c\u4eca\u5e74\u590f\u5929\u6cb9\u4ef7\u52bf\u5fc5\u98d9\u5347\uff0c\u5c4a\u65f6\u53ef\u80fd\u4f1a\u51fa\u73b0\u771f\u6b63\u7684\u77ed\u7f3a\u3002.<\/p>\n<p>\u4f5c\u8005\uff1a\u8328\u7ef4\u5854\u5a1c\u00b7\u5e15\u62c9\u65af\u79d1\u5a03 <a href=\"http:\/\/oilprice.com\">Oilprice.com<\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u66f4\u591a\u6765\u81ea Oilprice.com \u7684\u70ed\u95e8\u6587\u7ae0<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/Latest-Energy-News\/World-News\/HSBC-Flags-a-Super-Squeeze-In-the-Oil-Market.html\">\u6c47\u4e30\u94f6\u884c\u8b66\u544a\u79f0\uff0c\u77f3\u6cb9\u5e02\u573a\u5c06\u51fa\u73b0\u8d85\u7ea7\u6324\u538b\u3002<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/Latest-Energy-News\/World-News\/IEA-Global-Oil-Stocks-on-Track-for-Historical-Lows-Ahead-of-Summer-Peak.html\">\u56fd\u9645\u80fd\u6e90\u7f72\uff1a\u5168\u7403\u77f3\u6cb9\u5e93\u5b58\u6709\u671b\u5728\u590f\u5b63\u9ad8\u5cf0\u524d\u8dcc\u81f3\u5386\u53f2\u4f4e\u70b9<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/oilprice.com\/Energy\/Crude-Oil\/China-Draws-Down-Billion-Barrel-Stockpile-as-Iran-War-Cuts-Imports-in-Half.html\">\u4f0a\u6717\u6218\u4e89\u5bfc\u81f4\u8fdb\u53e3\u91cf\u51cf\u534a\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u51cf\u5c11\u4e8610\u4ebf\u6876\u539f\u6cb9\u5e93\u5b58\u3002<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In a somewhat puzzling market development, oil prices haven&#8217;t spiked yet to record highs amid the worst supply disruption in history. That&#8217;s because the market still hopes for a quick resolution to the Strait of Hormuz crisis (for more than three months now), global inventories have offered a supply buffer, the world&#8217;s top crude importer, 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