{"id":2640,"date":"2026-06-02T03:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-02T00:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mikhailinvest.com\/persian-gulf-oil-tanker-traffic-may-never-fully-recover\/"},"modified":"2026-06-02T03:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-06-02T00:00:00","slug":"persian-gulf-oil-tanker-traffic-may-never-fully-recover","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mikhailinvest.com\/zh\/persian-gulf-oil-tanker-traffic-may-never-fully-recover\/","title":{"rendered":"Persian Gulf Oil Tanker Traffic May Never Fully Recover"},"content":{"rendered":"

Oil and gas traffic via the Strait of Hormuz may never go back to pre-war levels if Iran cements its hold over the chokepoint. The warnings come from several unrelated sources as the war continues to drag on, with some recovery in traffic but nowhere near pre-February 28 levels. Meanwhile, Big Oil is warning that the looming supply shortage is about to hit global markets in weeks.<\/p>\n

\u201cNo matter what happens, the Iranians will control the Strait of Hormuz for the foreseeable future,\u201d Amos Hochstein, senior national security and energy advisor to President Biden, \u8bb2\u8ff0<\/a> CNBC last week. \u201cIt doesn\u2019t even matter what the deal says. Everybody in the region believes that.\u201d<\/p>\n

The deal that is currently under discussion between the United States and Iran focuses on extending a ceasefire rather than putting an end to the fighting. Still, differences remain between the two. The BBC \u636e\u62a5\u9053<\/a> earlier today that President Trump had requested edits to the text of the deal\/ That\u2019s despite Trump saying last week that \u201cThe one guarantee that I have to have is that there will be no nuclear weapons. They’ve agreed to that, and it was very interesting.\u201d<\/p>\n

While the negotiations drag on, expectations that Iran will remain in de facto charge of the Strait of Hormuz appear to be strengthening. \u201cAny end to the conflict that leaves Iran exercising operational control and influence over the Strait will result in appreciably lower flows through the waterway in our view,\u201d RBC Capital Markets\u2019 Helima Croft said in a recent note, as quoted by CNBC.<\/p>\n

Related: Turkey Looks to Create Azerbaijan-Europe Electricity Corridor<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

The Wall Street Journal, meanwhile, \u636e\u62a5\u9053<\/a> last week that the U.S. Navy was \u201cquietly coordinating vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz\u201d, as divulged by unnamed sources from the Pentagon. However, these crossings are still nowhere near pre-war traffic levels and do not seem to exclusively involve tankers, contributing to expectations of a prolonged tanker traffic disruption\u2014or even a whole new normal in tanker traffic from the Middle East.<\/p>\n

According to the editor-in-chief of Lloyd\u2019s List, Strait of Hormuz traffic could rebound to between 60% and 70% of pre-war levels eventually, but not all vessels would be treated equally. Chinese ships will likely enjoy preferential treatment from the Iranian forces that control the Strait, Richard Meade said, as quoted by CNBC, while Western vessels would need to pay for the right of passage via the strait.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis doesn\u2019t trigger a recession in the way that some of the doomsday scenarios that we\u2019ve talked about before might suggest, but it does not allow the prewar rebound,\u201d Meade said, adding, however, that \u201cIt produces something more insidious. A permanently bifurcated strait where access is a function of political alignment, not freedom of navigation.\u201d<\/p>\n

While analysts issue warnings and predictions, Big Oil is sounding an inventory alarm. In the past few days, senior executives from Exxon and Chevron both warned the world\u2019s oil supply is about to start running out in just a few weeks, regardless of what happens between Iran and the United States.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019re approaching unheard of inventory levels,\u201d Neil Chapman, senior vice president at Exxon, said at an event in New York last week, quoted<\/a> by CNBC. \u201cI mean really, really low levels,\u201d Chapman noted. \u201cYou can debate whether that\u2019s going to hit, those really low levels, in two weeks or three weeks. Once you get to that point, then you\u2019ll see price shoot up.\u201d<\/p>\n

Prices are currently trending down, with Brent crude<\/a> dropping off recent highs above $100 to just over $93 per barrel at the time of writing. WTI<\/a> was trading at below $90 per barrel despite the warnings predicting a steady level of $120 to $150 per barrel if the disruption in the Persian Gulf continues.<\/p>\n

Chevron\u2019s chief executive also joined the ranks of those warning of shortages. \u201cThe buffers and the shock absorbers are being steadily drawn down, and the ability for the market to absorb this imbalance is drastically diminished today versus where we started,\u201d Mike Wirth said last month, as quoted<\/a> by The Motley Fool, which noted that the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve has been drained steadily, falling to 365.1 million barrels, which is down from 415.4 million barrels before the U.S. and Israel launched the first missiles against Iran at the end of February.<\/p>\n

Earlier comments by analysts also pointed to the end of June or the beginning of July at the latest for the full extent of the crisis to be felt globally. Now, Big Oil chiefs are confirming this. \u201cOver the next few weeks, we’re likely to see those pressures flow through more directly to physical prices, and there’s more upward pressure that I would expect as we get into June and certainly into July,\u201d Chevron\u2019s Wirth said. This means oil prices are in for some sharp corrections unless the situation in the Persian Gulf changes, as fundamentals overtake Trump\u2019s social media posts as a basis for trading decisions.<\/p>\n

\u4f5c\u8005\uff1aIrina Slav\uff0c\u6765\u6e90\uff1aOilprice.com<\/p>\n

\u66f4\u591a\u6765\u81ea Oilprice.com \u7684\u70ed\u95e8\u6587\u7ae0<\/strong><\/p>\n