{"id":6918,"date":"2026-10-09T19:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-09T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mikhailinvest.com\/pashinyans-nuclear-u-turn-gives-moscow-an-opening-in-armenia\/"},"modified":"2026-10-09T19:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-10-09T16:00:00","slug":"pashinyans-nuclear-u-turn-gives-moscow-an-opening-in-armenia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mikhailinvest.com\/ru\/pashinyans-nuclear-u-turn-gives-moscow-an-opening-in-armenia\/","title":{"rendered":"Pashinyan\u2019s Nuclear U-Turn Gives Moscow an Opening in Armenia"},"content":{"rendered":"

Unable to persuade Armenia to abandon its efforts to join the European Union, Russia is now signaling that it is adopting a harder line.<\/p>\n

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan evidently is taking the menacing tone of recent Russian statements seriously. It appears the price of keeping the Kremlin at bay for now is the suspension of a nuclear cooperation deal with the United States and an accompanying commitment to have Rosatom, Russia\u2019s nuclear energy entity, build Armenia\u2019s next-generation reactor.<\/p>\n

Armenia over the past two years has grown increasingly defiant of Russia, Yerevan\u2019s traditional geopolitical overlord. Pashinyan\u2019s government downgraded security ties with Moscow, while taking steps to reorient the Armenian economy away from the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) toward the European Union.<\/p>\n

Russia presently is Armenia\u2019s dominant trade partner and clearly does not want to lose its influence in the South Caucasus. Officials in Moscow have maintained that Yerevan cannot be a member of both the EAEU and EU, and have adopted a carrot-and-mostly-stick approach to steer Armenia back into a stable Russian orbit.<\/p>\n

To pressure Armenia, Moscow has imposed bans on a variety of Armenian imports in apparent violation of the spirit of EAEU\u2019s free-trade rules. Russian officials at the same time engaged in a fleeting charm offensive<\/a>. Until recently, everything that Russia tried had failed to dissuade Pashinyan from pursuing EU accession.<\/p>\n

But an autumn intimidation blitz by top Russian officials appears to have gotten Pashinyan\u2019s attention.<\/p>\n

On October 4, Dmitry Medvedev, the erstwhile Russian president who now is a member of Russia\u2019s Security Council, issued a far-from-subtle threat<\/a> that if Russia cannot get its way with peaceful means, it may consider a resort to force.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThe current Armenian leadership decided it was right to change the direction of its development,\u201d Medvedev said, referring to the Pashinyan government\u2019s EU intentions. \u201cI am certain that this, too, will lead to nothing good. The worst thing that could happen to Armenia is its transformation into a new Ukraine.\u201d<\/p>\n

Even with the Russian army bogged down in Ukraine, and the Russian economy in tatters as it struggles to absorb the costs of war, the Kremlin retains the means to wreak havoc in Armenia. The Russian military maintains about 5,000 combat-ready troops at a base outside Gyumri<\/a>, Armenia\u2019s second city. Moscow also controls the country\u2019s energy<\/a> and electricity supply systems.<\/p>\n

Medvedev\u2019s comments may have been designed to reinforce a message delivered in late September by Rosatom\u2019s chief, Alexei Likhachev, whose visit to Yerevan was clearly aimed at reviving the company\u2019s chances of securing a contract to build a new nuclear plant to replace the aging Metsamor facility<\/a>. Citing a looming electricity deficit in the coming years in Armenia, Likhachev asserted<\/a> that a large-scale Rosatom reactor was Yerevan\u2019s best option to close the gap.<\/p>\n

A state-aligned Russian media outlet also opined<\/a> that Armenia\u2019s opting for Rosatom \u201ccould contribute to improving Russian-Armenian relations.\u201d<\/p>\n

Since signing a nuclear cooperation pact<\/a> with the United States during Vice President JD Vance\u2019s February visit to Armenia, Pashinyan\u2019s government had been leaning towards<\/a> replacing Metsamor with one or more American-built small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs).<\/p>\n

Likhachev\u2019s sales pitch apparently contained an offer that Pashinyan found hard to refuse, however. A day after Likhachev\u2019s departure from Yerevan, Pashinyan\u2019s stance on the nuclear plant issue made an abrupt u-turn.<\/p>\n

On October 1, Pashinyan seemed to parrot<\/a> Likhachev\u2019s position that SMRs would be insufficient to meet the country\u2019s fast-growing electricity needs, given the government\u2019s ambitions to transform the country in the South Caucasus\u2019 digital hub. He added that a 1-megawatt plant based on Russian VVER-1000 technology might be a better solution. A final decision should be made in the coming months, Pashinyan indicated.<\/p>\n

Pashinyan\u2019s political position now stands to become increasingly complicated as he tries to thread a geopolitical needle, keeping Russia content while maintaining his pursuit of EU membership and a lasting peace with Azerbaijan.<\/p>\n

On October 7, EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos offered encouragement for Armenia\u2019s accession bid, telling journalists<\/a> in Brussels that \u201cArmenia is really moving a lot toward the European Union. At this point, it is the only country with which we are negotiating visa liberalization.\u201d<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the Armenian government\u2019s dissatisfaction with the EAEU shows no signs of easing. Pashinyan aired grievances about the EAEU during an October 2 Eurasian Intergovernmental Council session.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cRestrictions and administrative barriers remain in place, which continue to significantly hamper the full and effective functioning of the single market,\u201d the official Armenpress news agency \u0446\u0438\u0442.<\/a> the prime minister as saying. He called for \u201cconstructive dialogue aimed at eliminating existing barriers to the export and transit of Armenian products in accordance with EAEU law.\u201d<\/p>\n

In the event that Yerevan hands the nuclear plant contract to Rosatom, it is difficult to predict how the Trump administration might respond. A fundamental building block of Armenia\u2019s economic development strategy is TRIPP, a US-backed transit corridor<\/a> project that is also the centerpiece of the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace process<\/a>. Losing out on the nuclear plant contract could potentially diminish US interest in TRIPP\u2019s development, or potentially prompt Washington to accelerate efforts to build out the transit route. At the same time, both Russia and Iran oppose TRIPP.<\/p>\n

On October 1, Alexey Shevtsov, another member of Russia\u2019s Security Council, assailed TRIPP as an initiative designed to establish an American military presence in Armenia.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn Armenia, in full accordance with classical post-colonial models, yet another \u2018state within a state\u2019 is being established, of which Westerners created many in the former Soviet republics,\u201d the Russian broadcaster RTV1 \u0446\u0438\u0442.<\/a> Shevstov as saying.<\/p>\n

\u041a Eurasianet.org<\/a><\/p>\n

\u0414\u0440\u0443\u0433\u0438\u0435 \u043b\u0443\u0447\u0448\u0438\u0435 \u0441\u0442\u0430\u0442\u044c\u0438 \u0441 \u0441\u0430\u0439\u0442\u0430 Oilprice.com<\/strong><\/p>\n