{"id":3386,"date":"2026-06-18T01:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-06-17T22:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mikhailinvest.com\/the-diesel-demand-shock-nobody-is-pricing-in\/"},"modified":"2026-06-18T01:00:00","modified_gmt":"2026-06-17T22:00:00","slug":"the-diesel-demand-shock-nobody-is-pricing-in","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mikhailinvest.com\/ru\/the-diesel-demand-shock-nobody-is-pricing-in\/","title":{"rendered":"The Diesel Demand Shock Nobody Is Pricing In"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Truck Exception Isn’t as Big as You Think<\/strong><\/p>\n

When I recently argued that the internal combustion engine may already have passed its peak, many readers responded with a familiar objection.<\/p>\n

Cars are one thing, they argued, but trucks are different.<\/p>\n

Passenger vehicles can be electrified because they drive predictable distances, return home every evening, and increasingly benefit from lower operating costs. Long-haul trucking, by contrast, depends on heavy payloads, long distances, and energy densities that batteries supposedly cannot provide. While electric cars may be replacing gasoline vehicles faster than expected, freight transport remains, according to many skeptics, the permanent home of diesel.<\/p>\n

At first glance, the argument sounds compelling. After all, nobody seriously expects a fully loaded truck to drive from Lisbon to Warsaw on a single battery charge anytime soon.<\/p>\n

The problem is that this debate often focuses on the most difficult edge cases rather than on how freight transport actually works. And once you look at the geography of freight movements across Europe, a very different picture begins to emerge.<\/p>\n

The Geography of European Freight<\/strong><\/p>\n

Recent European freight flow data paints a fascinating picture of how goods actually move across the continent. What stands out immediately is that the densest concentration of truck traffic is not centered on political capitals or national borders. Instead, it converges around Europe’s major ports, particularly Antwerp and Rotterdam, the gateways through which a huge share of Europe’s imported goods first enter the continent.<\/p>\n

From there, freight disperses through a dense network of highways linking ports to factories, warehouses, logistics centers, and major urban regions. The pattern closely follows the historic industrial corridor stretching from England through the Low Countries and the Rhine Valley into northern Italy\u2014the so-called “Blue Banana” that has served as Europe’s economic heartland for centuries. Related: IEA Sees Massive Oil Surplus In 2027 As Middle East Supply Returns<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

This matters because every one of those freight corridors represents economic activity, but it also represents diesel consumption. Road freight<\/a> remains one of the largest sources of fossil fuel demand outside the power sector and accounts for a significant share of Europe’s remaining dependence on imported hydrocarbons.<\/p>\n

The Myth of the 2,500-Kilometer Truck<\/strong><\/p>\n

One of the most persistent misconceptions about trucking is that extremely long-distance journeys define the sector. In reality, freight data suggests something quite different.<\/p>\n

The longest routes certainly exist, and they remain important. Goods move between Spain and Poland, Italy and Scandinavia, and countless other long-distance corridors. However, the majority of truck movements are far shorter. Most freight activity<\/a> takes place in regional and medium-distance networks connecting ports, industrial clusters, distribution centers, and cities.<\/p>\n

That distinction changes the electrification debate entirely.<\/p>\n

Much of the criticism directed at electric trucks focuses on the most difficult applications imaginable: a fully loaded vehicle travelling thousands of kilometers across Europe. Critics are correct that batteries still face limitations in such circumstances. Physics remains stubborn, and energy density still matters.<\/p>\n

But focusing exclusively on those routes risks missing where most diesel is actually being consumed. Most trucks are not crossing entire continents every day. They are transporting containers from ports to logistics hubs, supplying factories, delivering goods to warehouses, and operating predictable regional routes. Increasingly, those journeys fall well within the capabilities of today’s battery-electric trucks.<\/p>\n

The Economics Are Starting to Look Familiar<\/strong><\/p>\n

In many ways, the debate resembles the conversation around electric cars a decade ago.<\/p>\n

Back then, critics focused on the occasional family driving across Europe on holiday while overlooking the fact that most daily driving consisted of commuting, shopping, school runs, and local travel. Eventually, it became clear that people rarely needed the extreme range they thought they did.<\/p>\n

Freight transport may be approaching a similar moment.<\/p>\n

Electric trucks are unlikely to replace every diesel truck simultaneously, nor do they need to. The first wave of adoption will occur where economics and operational realities<\/a> already align: predictable routes, regular returns to base, high vehicle utilization, and distances that comfortably fit within existing battery ranges.<\/p>\n

Coincidentally, those conditions describe a large share of Europe’s busiest freight corridors.<\/p>\n

Why Ports May Become the New Oil Fields<\/strong><\/p>\n

The concentration of freight around ports and logistics hubs also creates a significant advantage for electrification.<\/p>\n

One of the greatest challenges facing alternative fuels has always been infrastructure. Building a continent-wide network for hydrogen, biofuels, or synthetic fuels requires enormous investments spread across thousands of locations. Electricity benefits from a different dynamic because freight activity naturally clusters around a limited number of strategic nodes.<\/p>\n

Ports, warehouses, logistics centers, and industrial parks therefore become natural charging hubs. Rather than attempting to decarbonize every road simultaneously, policymakers and investors can focus on the locations where truck traffic is most concentrated and where vehicles already spend time loading, unloading, and waiting.<\/p>\n

In many respects, the ports that once served as Europe’s gateways for imported oil may increasingly become the gateways for freight electrification.<\/p>\n

Decarbonizing the Fat Part of the Curve<\/strong><\/p>\n

Transport transitions rarely happen uniformly. Aviation faces different challenges than passenger vehicles. Shipping faces different challenges than urban delivery fleets. Long-haul trucking will almost certainly prove more difficult to decarbonize than regional freight for years to come.<\/p>\n

However, it would be a mistake to conclude that because one segment remains challenging, the entire sector must remain dependent on fossil fuels.<\/p>\n

The freight data suggests precisely the opposite. The most difficult long-haul routes represent only a portion of total trucking activity, while the majority occurs in dense regional networks where electrification is increasingly practical. That means Europe does not need to solve every freight challenge before making substantial progress. It simply needs to start with the largest and most accessible opportunities.<\/p>\n

All Roads Lead to the Port<\/strong><\/p>\n

For decades, diesel dominated freight transport because it solved every problem simultaneously. It offered range, flexibility, rapid refueling, and a mature infrastructure network that spanned the continent. Battery-electric trucks do not yet offer all of those advantages, particularly on the longest routes.<\/p>\n

Yet the structure of Europe’s freight system suggests that may not matter nearly as much as many assume.<\/p>\n

Freight activity is heavily concentrated<\/a> around ports, industrial clusters, logistics hubs, and regional corridors\u2014the very places where electrification makes the most economic and operational sense. The future of trucking may therefore not depend on solving the most difficult transcontinental journey first. It may depend on electrifying the thousands of shorter journeys that occur every day between ports, warehouses, factories, and cities.<\/p>\n

If that happens, a surprisingly large share of Europe’s diesel demand disappears long before anyone solves the final 2,500-kilometer haul.<\/p>\n

The skeptics are right that not every truck route will go electric tomorrow. What they may be underestimating is that most of them do not need to travel nearly as far as they imagine.<\/p>\n

\u041b\u0435\u043e\u043d \u0421\u0442\u0438\u043b\u043b\u0435, Oilprice.com<\/p>\n

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